Will the Switch Pass the PS2 in LTD sales?

Considering the Switch is now in its eighth year on the market in 2024, it's time to reassess if the Switch can surpass the PlayStation 2.. Last month, Nintendo’s Q3 FY Report saw Switch total shipments at 139.36 million units.

The PS2 life-to-date sells are over 155 million. Using the baseline of 155 million units sold, the Switch will need to sell approximately 16 million more units to reach that total.

Is that doable?

Well, the Switch does not have a lot of time left with the Switch 2 on the horizon. With the next console not expected until 2025, the Switch still has some time before the release of the new console, including one more holiday season.

With PS5 receiving no major releases from Sony’s 1st party studios this year and the XBOX Series having its own software struggles, it is not imperative for Nintendo to get the next console out immediately. The Switch is still holding its own sales-wise against the “HD Twins”. In fact, Nintendo actually raised shipment forecasts for the current quarter. So, clearly, Nintendo can ride the Switch comfortably for another year.

We will learn a lot on May 7th, when Nintendo releases it’s 2023 Q4 FY report. I’m very interested to see Nintendo’s shipment forecast for the Switch in FY 2024. I expect at least 10 million unit forecast for the Switch - and that’s the absolute floor. In fact, I chatted with Paul Gale about this on Twitter, he’s an insider and well connected in the videogame scene. And he’s more bullish on Switch than I am:

Paul predicts Nintendo will forecast 11.5 million for this coming fiscal year. That’s very reasonable.

Also, he mentions that the Switch sold through 60% of its quarterly forecast already:

One final fact to consider: The Switch hasn’t even had a price cut yet…